If Myanmar Cannot Be Isolated, ASEAN Should Make Engagement Conditional 

Myanmar has entered a new chapter in its civil war. Since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar’s armed forces, or known locally as the Tatmadaw, has faced sustained armed resistance across the country, triggering a civil war that has claimed the lives of over 100,000 people and displaced millions more. Five years on, neither the military’s junta nor ASEAN’s diplomatic efforts have produced a durable political settlement, making this bloody conflict a stain on ASEAN’s conflict management reputation. In response, the regional bloc has largely kept Myanmar’s junta authorities at arm’s length, shunning their participation in high-level political meetings and refusing to recognise the military’s political process as a path towards normalisation. 

Myanmar’s Protracted Crisis Has Become a Defining Test of ASEAN’s Regional Diplomacy

ASEAN’s renewed calls for broader humanitarian access, the unconditional release of detained political figures in Myanmar on August 3 and support for a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned peace process have once again highlighted the bloc’s reliance on the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) as its principal framework for engagement. Its continued reaffirmation at successive summits and ministerial meetings has increasingly raised questions over ASEAN’s strategic integrity, credibility and centrality in responding to one of the region’s most enduring security challenges.

Anti-Scam Law Becomes the First Political Test of Myanmar’s New Government

Myanmar’s military-backed Union Parliament has approved an Anti-Online Scam Law that introduces tougher penalties for online fraud on July 28, including a mandatory death sentence in cases where victims die after being forced to participate in scam operations. It is also the first legislation passed under the government of President Min Aung Hlaing, who moved from junta chief to head of state in April following an election that the pro-democracy party National League for Democracy did not contest.